How England Smashed my Ashes Prediction for Six
A few weeks ago I predicted a comfortable Australia victory in the 2015 Ashes. Most of the cricketing world, including England Captain Alastair Cook didn't think that his inexperienced side could beat mighty Australia.
How have England beaten the odds? And what can we learn from it?
Innings long swing
This has been especially apparent in the 3rd and 4th Tests. England have looked after the ball wonderfully well. Their 'chief shiners' have had a good foundation to work with. It has helped that the Aussie batters have not built significant partnerships and subsequently not damaged the ball significantly but England have been smart with their shining.
I know I bore you with this, but shining the ball is an art. Taking time to look after the ball to facilitate lateral movement is the key to wicket taking at a fast rate. Fast-medium gun barrel straight bowlers are cannon fodder at Test level. England didn't get the ball to swing at Lords and Australia scored 820 runs for 10 wickets in that match.
England got the ball to swing consistently big in the 3rd and 4th Tests and Australia could only amass 714 runs for 40 wickets: Series over!
Who could be given the role of ball shiner in your team? Who could teach that player the 'art of shining'? Look at the stats above.
You can't tell me that this isn't worth a go!
Swing it in, Swing it out: scramble the batters GPS
The real skill once you have a ball in the right condition is to use it effectively. England did this brilliantly.
Jimmy Anderson was brilliant at Cardiff and Edgbaston at changing the direction of the swing. It's easy to get caught up with your stock outswinger when it's hooping yet the really skilful bowlers tease the batter by making them guess which way the is going to swinging.
Stuart Broad took over that role from Jimmy at Trent Bridge in his amazing 8-15 spell.
The ball swung in or out and - in particular - the right handed batters lost their off stump "GPS signal".
They ended up either pushing hard at 5th stump line away swingers or being squared up to inswingers, of all things. Whilst many have slated the Aussie batters techniques, the quality of Anderson, Broad, Finn, Stokes and Wood has been amazing.
Does your best swing bowler get caught up with their stock swinging delivery? Can he develop an opposite swing to confuse the opposition batters and unlock Aussie-like collapses?
Bowler deployment: Captain Cook comes of age
Broad was the England go to man against Michael Clarke. Take the captain down and the ship will sink. Stokes swung the ball both ways, especially when he goes around the wicket to left-handers.
Captain Cook worked this out and trusted Stokes with more overs against the left handers (Warner, Rogers, Starc and Johnson) to maximise his all-rounder's impact on the game.
Creating chances is one thing, taking them is another.
One of the focuses of the English pre-series Spain get together was to maximise their ability to take chances at slip. If you need to create 25+ chances to get 20 Aussie wickets per Test then there is a good chance that you won't win.
England focused their preparations around their slip cordon. Getting the catching formation right, their stagger correct and their ability to clasp their hands around the ultimate prize; an Aussie edge.
Ian Bell had been their weak link. His indecision at 2nd slip had cost England dear against New Zealand. So, coaches Bayliss and Farbrace worked hard on the combination between Bell at 2nd and Root at 3rd slip. If they built confidence in this partnership then it would be worth three or four key wickets in the series. They are now becoming a great partnership.
To date, Bell has taken six catches, Root eight (seven at slip) and Cook eight (six at slip). The best Aussie catcher has been Voges with four and he has fielded in a variety of positions. The telling stat is that Clarke (1st slip) has taken just one catch to date in the series.
So in effect, England have out-swung and out caught Australia on their way to the Ashes.
Simple things lead to great results.
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